Heat pumps by province · checked October 19, 2026

Heat pumps in Ontario

Ontario homes need heat down to −13.0°C to −28.6°C on a design day. At today's prices a cold-climate heat pump in Toronto delivers heat for about $16.00 a GJ, against $8.81 for a high-efficiency gas furnace.

A Victorian red-brick semi-detached house with a front porch in autumn
Design temperature −28.6°C coldest of 30 cities we cover; mildest −13.0°C
Cold-climate heat pump $16.00 per GJ Toronto, seasonal COP 2.5
Gas furnace (95%) $8.81 per GJ gas costs less to run here; a heat pump would need a seasonal COP of 4.5 to match it
Heat pump programs 2 of 2 open Amounts and equipment rules

Climate and sizing

A heat pump is sized to the design temperature: the cold that a home must handle on all but the coldest 1% of winter hours. Below that, most systems keep heating at reduced output, and a backup (electric strips or the old furnace) covers the gap. The seasonal COP is a planning value for the whole winter, backup and defrost included.

Heating climate by city in Ontario
City Design temperature Heating degree days Nights below −20°C Seasonal COP, cold-climate Heat pump cost per GJ
Toronto −16.3°C 3,498 1.2 2.5 standard 2.2 $16.00
Ottawa −24.3°C 4,395 16.8 2.2 standard 1.9 $18.18
Mississauga −18.3°C 3,873 3.9 2.5 standard 2.2 $16.00
Brampton −18.3°C 3,873 3.9 2.5 standard 2.2 $16.00
Hamilton −15.6°C 3,924 3.3 2.5 standard 2.2 $16.00
London −18.4°C 3,941 3.8 2.5 standard 2.2 $16.00
Markham −19.8°C 4,004 6.1 2.2 standard 1.9 $18.18
Vaughan −19.8°C 4,004 6.1 2.2 standard 1.9 $18.18
Kitchener −20.3°C 4,194 6.0 2.2 standard 1.9 $18.18
Windsor −15.2°C 3,409 1.2 2.5 standard 2.2 $16.00
Oakville −15.6°C 3,873 3.9 2.5 standard 2.2 $16.00
Richmond Hill −19.8°C 3,961 4.7 2.5 standard 2.2 $16.00

Design temperatures: HOT2000 weather files (NRCan). Degree days and cold nights: Environment and Climate Change Canada 1991–2020 normals. Seasonal COP: Seasonal COP for a whole heating season, including electric backup heat and defrost, for a heat pump sized for mild to cold weather. Planning values set slightly below modelled results (Dunsky/CCI 2024) because field studies (RDH for FortisBC; Yukon pilot) came in lower. Above 6,000 degree-days the values rest on one partial-season pilot in Whitehorse, so we use the low end of the band from 7,000 degree-days (Yellowknife).

What heat costs to run in Toronto

Cost per gigajoule of heat delivered into the house, at prices current on October 8, 2026, using the marginal price of electricity an electrically heated home pays in winter. A typical older house in a cold province uses 60 to 120 GJ of heat a year. Here a heat pump would need a seasonal COP above 4.5 to match a 95% gas furnace, so at these prices gas stays cheaper to run; the case for a heat pump rests on adding air conditioning, replacing an old furnace or AC, cutting emissions, or the rebates.

Delivered heat cost by fuel in Toronto
Heating system Cost per GJ of heat vs cheapest Based on
Natural gas furnace (95%) $8.81 cheapest 31.4¢ per m³
Cold-climate heat pump $16.00 +82% seasonal COP 2.5 for this climate
Standard heat pump $18.18 +106% seasonal COP 2.2
Electric baseboards or furnace $40.00 +354% 14.4¢ per kWh
Oil furnace (85%) $60.02 +581% $1.95 per litre, 12-month average

Prices and their sources are on our energy cost calculator, which works the numbers for your own home.

Heat pump rebates in Ontario

Every heat pump program we found, with the equipment rule that decides which models qualify. Checked against each program's own page on October 19, 2026. Most rebates here use NRCan's Eligible Products List: check the exact pairing there before you sign.

Home Renovation Savings — heat pump rebates (no assessment)

Open

Enbridge Gas and Save on Energy (IESO)

Heat pump amountsOwned homes heated by electricity, oil, propane or wood: cold-climate air-source (centrally ducted, ductless or partially ducted mini-split, or multi-split) $1,250 per ton up to $7,500; ground-source $2,000 per ton up to $12,000. Enbridge natural-gas-heated homes: air-source $500 per ton up to $2,000; ground-source $3,000 flat. Rented heat pumps, any fuel: air-source $500 per ton up to $2,000; ground-source $3,000. No separate ducted/ductless amounts. Air-source tons are based on the minimum rated heating capacity…

Equipment ruleAir-source: an active cold-climate model on NRCan's Eligible Product Lists for Air Source Heat Pumps and Cold Climate Heat Pumps meeting HSPF2 (Region V) ≥ 6.6, SEER2 ≥ 15.2, COP ≥ 1.8 at −15°C (5°F) at maximum capacity, capacity maintenance (max at −15°C vs rated at 8.3°C) ≥ 70%, variable capacity (3+ speeds or continuously variable), rated heating capacity ≥ 12,000 BTU/h at 8.3°C, status Live/Active, sold in Canada; de-listed, inactive or archived models don't qualify. Indoor and outdoor units must be listed…

Other conditionsWritten pre-approval of the participating contractor's pre-installation application is mandatory; installs before approval get nothing. Participating HVAC contractor only (Ontario business licence, 2+ consecutive years of heat pump business in Ontario, 313A/313D licence, TSSA registration, ozone depletion prevention certificate). The home must not already have a heat pump for…

homerenovationsavings.ca ↗ · checked October 19, 2026

Save on Energy Energy Affordability Program — free cold-climate heat pumps

Open

Save on Energy (IESO); oil-heated homes funded through NRCan's Oil to Heat Pump Affordability program

Heat pump amountsA cold-climate air-source heat pump installed at no cost for income-eligible households; listed under Comprehensive Support 'for homes heated by electricity or oil'. No ground-source offer.

Equipment rule'Cold climate air source heat pump' chosen and installed through the program; no model list, certification or sizing rule is published on the program pages.

Other conditionsIncome-eligible under the Comprehensive Support income table; the utility account holder who owns, rents or leases the home (the heat pump text says 'eligible homeowners'). No dates or closing notice shown. Phone 1-844-770-3148.

saveonenergy.ca ↗ · checked October 19, 2026

Federal programs

National Heat Pump Rebate

Announced October 8, 2026 and opening early 2027: up to $10,000 below the median income, $2,000 for other eligible homeowners

Canada Greener Homes Affordability Program

Free retrofits for low-to-median-income households through provincial partners in BC, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, PEI and Quebec (Quebec's 2026–27 intake has closed) — not available in Ontario

Our full program guides

Home Renovation Savings — Home Energy Assessment pathHome Renovation Savings — direct rebates (no assessment)Toronto Home Energy Loan Program (HELP)Home Efficiency Rebate Plus (HER+)

NRCan's Eligible Products List ↗

Systems that suit Ontario winters

The certified systems that heat most efficiently at −15°C (5°F) on current refrigerants, from ENERGY STAR's Canadian listings. Rows marked "Meets NRCan's −15°C thresholds" are the ones to check on NRCan's list for the rebates here. With design temperatures near −28.6°C, ask for the maker's capacity tables below −15°C and plan the backup heat.

Mini-splits and multi-splits

Cold-climate mini-splits for Ontario
Brand Outdoor / indoor model Size Heat at −15°C (5°F) COP at −15°C (5°F) HSPF2 SEER2 Refrigerant AHRI #
Midea M3O Series M3OX430-27HFN8-M1 Same ratings also listed as Innovair, Stelpro, Dettson and Ouellet 27,000 BTU/h 2.5-ton 21,400 BTU/h 79% of rated 2.80 10.0 22.5 R-32 ENERGY STAR Cold Climate Meets NRCan's −15°C thresholds 218461516
Fujitsu AIRSTAGE H-Series AOUH12KTAP1 ASUH12KTAS 15,300 BTU/h 1-ton 16,200 BTU/h 106% of rated 2.62 13.7 31.5 R-32 ENERGY STAR Cold Climate Meets NRCan's −15°C thresholds 216018256
Hitachi airCore700 PAS-18BUFASDQ1-LAC PCI-B18UFA1DQ 18,000 BTU/h 1.5-ton 15,000 BTU/h 83% of rated 2.60 11.0 27.0 R-32 ENERGY STAR Cold Climate Meets NRCan's −15°C thresholds 217450776
Hitachi airCore700 PAS-18BUFASDQ1 PCI-B18UFA1DQ 20,000 BTU/h 1.5-ton 16,200 BTU/h 81% of rated 2.60 11.0 25.0 R-32 ENERGY STAR Cold Climate Meets NRCan's −15°C thresholds 214723258
Carrier 45M Series 37MARAQ24AA3 45MAHAQ24XA3 Same ratings also listed as Bryant, Midea, Heil, Tempstar, Comfortmaker, KeepRite and other ICP brands, Payne and WeatherMaker, Kenmore, LPS Legacy, Smart Comfort 25,000 BTU/h 2-ton 19,600 BTU/h 78% of rated 2.54 11.7 23.1 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate Meets NRCan's −15°C thresholds 215323752
Bosch BMS Series BMS500-AAS024-1CSXRD BMS500-AAU024-1AHWXD Same ratings also listed as Midea, Moovair, Innovair, Stelpro, Dettson and Ouellet, Cooper & Hunter, ACiQ, Blueridge, AC PRO, CanAir 25,000 BTU/h 2-ton 19,600 BTU/h 78% of rated 2.54 11.7 23.0 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate Meets NRCan's −15°C thresholds 215223306
Fujitsu AIRSTAGE H-Series AOUH15KTAP1 ASUH15KTAS 17,400 BTU/h 1-ton 18,400 BTU/h 106% of rated 2.52 13.0 28.7 R-32 ENERGY STAR Cold Climate Meets NRCan's −15°C thresholds 216018257
AUX C-Series AFEB09HP115V1CO AFEB09HP115V1CH 9,700 BTU/h 1-ton 9,200 BTU/h 95% of rated 2.52 9.5 22.0 R-32 ENERGY STAR Cold Climate Meets NRCan's −15°C thresholds 214290017

Central systems, 2 tons and up

Cold-climate central heat pumps for Ontario
Brand Outdoor / indoor model Size Heat at −15°C (5°F) COP at −15°C (5°F) HSPF2 SEER2 Refrigerant AHRI #
Samsung Hylex AC060FCUPCG FEMUU1A60S001R 56,000 BTU/h 4.5-ton 43,000 BTU/h 77% of rated 2.58 9.0 17.0 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 217734250
Samsung Hylex AC048FCUPCG FEMTT7A60S001R 48,000 BTU/h 4-ton 40,500 BTU/h 84% of rated 2.52 8.5 16.5 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 217734248
Hisense Hi-PRO HD AUWR-60U3TH5 AUH-48UX3TEH3 Same ratings also listed as Endura, Gridless, HAXXAIR, Multi MFG, SUM X, Voltas, Zephyr 48,000 BTU/h 4-ton 37,000 BTU/h 77% of rated 2.52 9.0 19.0 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate Meets NRCan's −15°C thresholds 215270433
Midea MVB Series MOE30-36HFN10-M3X MVBDM-36HWFN10-WC3 36,000 BTU/h 3-ton 36,000 BTU/h 100% of rated 2.46 10.0 18.0 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate Meets NRCan's −15°C thresholds 216967947
Hisense Hi-PRO HD AUWR-6024P AUH-6024 Same ratings also listed as Endura, Gridless, HAXXAIR, Multi MFG, SUM X, Voltas, Zephyr 57,000 BTU/h 5-ton 42,000 BTU/h 74% of rated 2.46 9.0 19.0 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate Meets NRCan's −15°C thresholds 214855379
Armstrong Air, AirEase, Ducane and Concord A7CP21V SERIES A7CP21V36P-**A 7EH30BX-**+TDR Same ratings also listed as AC PRO 30,800 BTU/h 3-ton 22,600 BTU/h 73% of rated 2.44 8.5 17.5 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate Meets NRCan's −15°C thresholds 217493329
Lennox Elite EL21KLV SERIES EL21KLV-036-230A** CK40HT-30B-**+TDR Same ratings also listed as GE Appliances and Haier 31,200 BTU/h 3-ton 22,800 BTU/h 73% of rated 2.44 9.4 19.0 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate Meets NRCan's −15°C thresholds 217443321
Lennox DAVE LENNOX SIGNATURE SL22KLV SERIES SL22KLV-036-230A** CBK48MVT-060-230-** 32,600 BTU/h 3-ton 33,200 BTU/h 102% of rated 2.42 10.5 20.0 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate Meets NRCan's −15°C thresholds 216776011

Brands with the most rebate-ready models

Outdoor models whose ENERGY STAR ratings meet NRCan's −15°C thresholds, by brand. Each brand page has the warranty, lines and best models.

Brands by cold-climate model count
BrandMeet NRCan thresholdsAll certified modelsPrice tier
Midea 520 624 Mid-range
Gree 496 527 Mid-range
Innovair, Stelpro, Dettson and Ouellet 207 218 Mid-range
TCL 166 176 Not rated
Hisense 149 198 Mid-range
Mitsubishi Electric 145 231 Premium
Heil, Tempstar, Comfortmaker, KeepRite and other ICP brands 142 275 Budget to premium
Moovair 136 151 Mid-range
Comfort-Aire and Century 124 148 Mid-range
Bryant 119 219 Budget to premium
Carrier 119 201 Budget to premium
ACiQ 109 148 Budget

Compare every brand · All 42 brand pages and every certified name

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