Heat pumps by metro · California · checked October 19, 2026

Heat pumps in San Francisco

The climate is mild all year, so almost any certified heat pump can heat the house; efficiency and quiet running decide the choice. At California prices an efficient heat pump delivers heat for about $39.40 per million Btu, against $22.32 for a high-efficiency gas furnace.

Utility bills and a phone showing a monthly energy-use chart on a kitchen table
Climate Zone 3C 2,475 heating and 200 cooling degree days a year
Heat pump $39.40 per million Btu seasonal COP 2.5 for this climate
Gas furnace (95%) $22.32 per million Btu gas costs less to run here; a heat pump would need a seasonal COP of 4.4 to match it
Heat pump programs 2 of 5 open Amounts and equipment rules

Climate and sizing

The climate is mild all year, so almost any certified heat pump can heat the house; efficiency and quiet running decide the choice. This is a marine climate: mild all year, so a small system sized to the real load runs quietly and efficiently. Whatever the climate, the system should be sized from a room-by-room load calculation (ACCA Manual J), not from the size of the old air conditioner or furnace: an oversized heat pump short-cycles, dehumidifies poorly and costs more.

IECC 2021 climate zone
3C
Heating degree days (65°F)
2,475
Cooling degree days (65°F)
200
Weather station
SAN FRANCISCO INTL AP, CA US
Seasonal COP for planning
2.8 cold-climate · 2.5 standard
Typical home
built around 1946; 38% owner-occupied

Degree days: NOAA 1991–2020 climate normals. Climate zone: IECC 2021 (PNNL county list). Housing: Census American Community Survey. Seasonal COP: Seasonal COP for a whole heating season, including electric backup heat and defrost, for a heat pump sized for mild to cold weather. Planning values set slightly below modelled results (Dunsky/CCI 2024) because field studies (RDH for FortisBC; Yukon pilot) came in lower. Above 6,000 degree-days the values rest on one partial-season pilot in Whitehorse, so we use the low end of the band from 7,000 degree-days (Yellowknife).

What heat costs to run in San Francisco

Cost per million Btu of heat delivered into the house, at California's average residential prices from the EIA (electricity for July 2026, gas as an annual average). A typical older house in a cold climate uses 50 to 100 million Btu of heat a year; a house in the South uses far less. Here a heat pump needs a seasonal COP above 4.4 to beat a 95% gas furnace, so at these prices gas stays cheaper to run; the case for a heat pump rests on replacing the air conditioner, cutting emissions or a time-of-use rate.

Delivered heat cost by fuel in San Francisco
Heating system Cost per million Btu of heat vs cheapest Based on
Natural gas furnace (95%) $22.32 cheapest $2.12 per therm (2025 average)
Cold-climate heat pump $35.18 +58% seasonal COP 2.8 for this climate
Standard heat pump $39.40 +77% seasonal COP 2.5
Electric furnace or baseboards $98.50 +341% 33.6¢ per kWh (July 2026)

Against electric resistance heat (baseboards or an electric furnace), even a standard heat pump cuts the heating bill by about 60%.

Prices: EIA electricity · EIA natural gas. Your own rate plan may differ, especially on a time-of-use or heat pump rate.

Heat pump rebates in San Francisco

Every heat pump program we found for the San Francisco area, with the equipment rule that decides which models qualify. Checked against each program's own page on October 19, 2026. Most utility programs need an AHRI-matched system; check the exact pairing in the AHRI directory before you sign.

CleanPowerSF Electrify Your Home bill credits (clean heating)

Open

CleanPowerSF (San Francisco Public Utilities Commission)

Heat pump amountsHeat pump space heating: '$50 per month for 24 months ($1,200 total)'. CARE or FERA customers 'may qualify for an extra 12 months of bill credits (a total of $600)' when upgrading water or space heating.

Equipment ruleInstallation must be 'on or after April 14, 2026'. The customer must enroll in 'an electrification rate such as EV2-A or E-ELEC' and comply with Department of Building Inspection permit requirements. The page states no ENERGY STAR or efficiency rule.

Other conditionsNo contractor requirement ('we recommend hiring a licensed, insured contractor'). DIY is not addressed.

cleanpowersf.org ↗ · checked October 19, 2026

WestLight Energy heat pump HVAC rebate (San Mateo County)

Open

WestLight Energy (formerly Peninsula Clean Energy)

Heat pump amountsThe page offers 'exclusive rebates on heat pump water heaters, heat pump HVAC systems, and used EVs' but shows no amount.

Equipment ruleNot stated on the page.

Other conditionsNot stated on the rebates page. Per our October 12 check, the 0% loan requires a loan-approved contractor.

westlightenergy.org ↗ · checked October 19, 2026

Bay Area Air District Clean HEET (wood stove to heat pump)

Closed now

Bay Area Air District (as reported by BayREN)

Heat pump amounts'Individual awards range from $3,000 - $10,500 for one stove/insert and $6,000 - $13,500 for two stoves/inserts.'

Equipment ruleReplace an existing, operational freestanding wood stove or wood-burning fireplace insert with an electric heat pump. No other specification is stated.

Other conditionsNot stated.

Statusclosed: 'The Clean HEET Program application period closed on July 14, 2026.'

bayren.org ↗ · checked October 19, 2026

TECH Clean California single-family heat pump HVAC incentives

Closed now

TECH Clean California (Energy Solutions, for California utilities under CPUC oversight)

Heat pump amountsNo amounts listed; the incentives are fully reserved.

Equipment ruleNot stated on the page.

Other conditionsParticipating (TECH-enrolled) contractors only.

StatusFully reserved: 'As of November 14, 2025, TECH Clean California single-family heat pump water heater and heat pump HVAC incentives are reserved statewide.' No reopening date.

techcleanca.com ↗ · checked October 19, 2026

California HEEHRA Phase I (IRA Home Electrification and Appliance Rebates)

Closed now

California Energy Commission, delivered through TECH Clean California

Heat pump amountsSingle-family heat pump HVAC: up to $8,000 (household income under 80% AMI) or up to $4,000 (80-150% AMI). Low-income multifamily: $7,500 for two-speed and $8,000 for variable-speed heat pumps. Moderate-income multifamily: up to 50% of eligible costs, max $14,000 per unit.

Equipment rule'Two-speed or variable-speed ENERGY STAR certified heat pump for space heating and cooling.' Single-family installs must replace an existing non-heat-pump source of space heating. From Jan. 1, 2026, systems 'must only contain refrigerants with a global warming potential (GWP) of 700 or lower'.

Other conditionsA TECH Clean California-certified, HEEHRA-trained contractor is required, and the reservation must be approved before installation. Since July 15, 2025, a project cannot receive both a TECH incentive and a HEEHRA rebate.

StatusClosed to new reservations. Single-family has been fully reserved statewide since Feb. 24, 2026, with unapproved requests waitlisted. Multifamily has been fully reserved since Sept. 1, 2026.

techcleanca.com ↗ · checked October 19, 2026

Federal

Federal tax credit (25C)

Ended

No 25C credit for a heat pump placed in service after December 31, 2025. Heat pumps installed in 2025 are claimed on 2025 returns.

irs.gov ↗

High-Efficiency Electric Home Rebates

The federal rebate (formerly HEAR) pays up to $8,000 toward an ENERGY STAR certified heat pump for income-qualified households, through the state. Since May 29, 2026 it covers only upgrades from existing electric equipment, and the installer must be on the state's contractor list. California's status is in the program list above.

Program rules ↗

Audit programs, other rebates and help for lower-income homes: our San Francisco guide.

Systems that suit San Francisco

The certified systems that heat most efficiently at 5°F, and those that cool most efficiently, on current refrigerants, from ENERGY STAR's US listings. Rebadged twins with identical ratings are folded into one row.

Central systems that cool most efficiently

Central systems that cool most efficiently for San Francisco
Brand Outdoor / indoor model Size SEER2 EER2 HSPF2 COP at 5°F Refrigerant AHRI #
Carrier Infinity 23 VS Heat Pump 27VNA324A*030* CVAMA4421XMA*+UI Same ratings also listed as Bryant, Heil, Tempstar, Comfortmaker, KeepRite and other ICP brands, ACiQ, Kenmore 27,600 BTU/h 2-ton 23.0 14.0 9.5 2.06 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 217624611
Bryant Evolution 23 VS Heat Pump 293VAN048**AA* FE5BNBD60L*+UI Same ratings also listed as Heil, Tempstar, Comfortmaker, KeepRite and other ICP brands, ACiQ, Kenmore 48,000 BTU/h 4-ton 23.0 12.5 9.5 1.98 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 215931505
Carrier Infinity 23 VS Heat Pump 27VNA336A*030* CVAVA6124XMA*+UI Same ratings also listed as Bryant, Heil, Tempstar, Comfortmaker, KeepRite and other ICP brands, ACiQ, Kenmore 37,600 BTU/h 3-ton 22.5 12.5 8.5 2.06 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 215936924
Heil, Tempstar, Comfortmaker, KeepRite and other ICP brands SmartSense 23 VS HP B5H3V36*K*AAA* EVM5X61M24A*+WALLCON Same ratings also listed as Kenmore 37,600 BTU/h 3-ton 22.5 12.5 8.5 2.04 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 218411807
York LX SERIES YH960E2C11 CTM60C5CGS1+JMC17C2SN1+CC Same ratings also listed as Coleman and Luxaire, Kenmore 48,000 BTU/h 4-ton 22.0 12.0 9.0 2.00 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 218026792
Mitsubishi Electric P series 5HCL9036A1000A* 5TEM9D04AC31SA* 40,000 BTU/h 3-ton 21.2 12.1 9.2 2.10 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 217497618
Lennox DAVE LENNOX SIGNATURE SL22KLV SERIES SL22KLV-060-230A** CK40[C,U]T-60C-**+TDR 51,000 BTU/h 4.5-ton 21.1 11.7 9.0 1.96 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 216776120
Lennox Elite EL21KLV SERIES EL21KLV-024-230A** CK40HT-24B-**+TDR Same ratings also listed as Armstrong Air, AirEase, Ducane and Concord 24,000 BTU/h 2-ton 21.0 13.5 8.2 1.90 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 218745112

Central systems that heat best in the cold (2 tons and up)

Central systems that heat best in the cold (2 tons and up) for San Francisco
Brand Outdoor / indoor model Size Heat at 5°F COP at 5°F HSPF2 SEER2 Refrigerant AHRI #
Samsung Hylex AC060FCUPCG FEMUU1A60S001R 56,000 BTU/h 4.5-ton 43,000 BTU/h 77% of rated 2.58 9.0 17.0 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 217734250
Samsung Hylex AC048FCUPCG FEMTT7A60S001R 48,000 BTU/h 4-ton 40,500 BTU/h 84% of rated 2.52 8.5 16.5 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 217734248
Hisense Hi-PRO HD AUWR-60U3TH5 AUH-48UX3TEH3 Same ratings also listed as Multi MFG 48,000 BTU/h 4-ton 37,000 BTU/h 77% of rated 2.52 9.0 19.0 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 215270433
Lennox Elite EL21KLV SERIES EL21KLV-036-230A** CK40HT-30B-**+TDR 30,800 BTU/h 3-ton 22,600 BTU/h 73% of rated 2.48 9.0 18.5 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 217443282
Midea MVB Series MOE30-36HFN10-M3X MVBDM-36HWFN10-WC3 36,000 BTU/h 3-ton 36,000 BTU/h 100% of rated 2.46 10.0 18.0 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 216967947
Hisense Hi-PRO HD AUWR-6024P AUH-6024 Same ratings also listed as Multi MFG 57,000 BTU/h 5-ton 42,000 BTU/h 74% of rated 2.46 9.0 19.0 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 214855379
Armstrong Air, AirEase, Ducane and Concord A7CP21V Series A7CP21V36P-**A 7EH30BX-**+TDR Same ratings also listed as AC PRO 30,600 BTU/h 3-ton 22,400 BTU/h 73% of rated 2.46 9.0 19.0 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 217446281
GE Appliances and Haier NS21H Series NS21H36MA5-**A NCHC30BT5*-**+TDR 30,600 BTU/h 3-ton 22,400 BTU/h 73% of rated 2.46 9.0 17.0 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 217642661

Mini-splits that cool most efficiently

Mini-splits that cool most efficiently for San Francisco
Brand Outdoor / indoor model Size SEER2 EER2 HSPF2 COP at 5°F Refrigerant AHRI #
Carrier 45M Series 37MPRAQ06AA3 45MPHAQ06XA3 Same ratings also listed as Bryant, Midea, Payne and WeatherMaker 9,000 BTU/h 0.5-ton 35.1 17.5 15.6 2.00 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 215413141
Mitsubishi Electric M-Series MUZ-FX06NLHZ*** MSZ-FX06NL*** 9,000 BTU/h 0.5-ton 35.0 21.5 13.0 2.38 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 215611124
Midea MSE Series MO1SS-H06B-2A MSESU-H06B-2A Same ratings also listed as Comfort-Aire and Century, Blueridge, AI AIR CONDITIONING, KEEN Home, Mainline, Novair 9,000 BTU/h 0.5-ton 35.0 17.4 15.6 2.00 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 215471385
Fujitsu AIRSTAGE H-Series AOUH09KTAP1 ASUH09KTAS 12,000 BTU/h 1-ton 33.5 19.1 14.0 2.48 R-32 ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 216018255
Carrier 45M Series 37MPRAQ09AA3 45MPHAQ09XA3 Same ratings also listed as Bryant, Midea, Payne and WeatherMaker 12,000 BTU/h 1-ton 33.5 17.0 14.6 2.00 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 215413142
Midea MSE Series MO1SS-H09B-2A MSESU-H09B-2A Same ratings also listed as Senville, Comfort-Aire and Century, Blueridge, AI AIR CONDITIONING, CanAir, KEEN Home, Mainline, Novair 12,000 BTU/h 1-ton 33.3 17.0 14.6 2.00 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 215471386
Fujitsu AIRSTAGE H-Series AOUH09KZAH1 ASUH09KZAS 12,000 BTU/h 1-ton 33.1 18.8 13.3 2.26 R-32 ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 214888800
Mitsubishi Electric M-Series MUZ-FX09NLHZ*** MSZ-FX09NL*** 12,000 BTU/h 1-ton 33.1 18.4 13.3 2.20 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 215611125

Brands with the most cold-climate models

Outdoor models that meet ENERGY STAR Cold Climate, by brand. Each brand page has the warranty, product lines and best models.

Heat pump brands for San Francisco
Brand ENERGY STAR Cold Climate Best COP at 5°F All certified models Price tier
Midea 523 2.89 629 Mid-range
Gree 368 2.40 406 Mid-range
Mitsubishi Electric 241 3.28 369 Premium
Innovair, Stelpro, Dettson and Ouellet 209 2.80 220 Mid-range
Innova (formerly Ephoca) 191 2.30 191 Premium
TCL 166 2.25 176 Not rated
Blueridge 161 2.54 202 Budget
Heil, Tempstar, Comfortmaker, KeepRite and other ICP brands 146 2.89 275 Budget to premium
Moovair 136 2.89 152 Mid-range
Bryant 123 2.89 219 Budget to premium
Carrier 123 2.89 201 Budget to premium
Comfort-Aire and Century 123 2.44 151 Mid-range

Compare every brand · All 43 brand pages and every certified name

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