Heat pumps by metro · California · checked October 19, 2026

Heat pumps in San Francisco

The climate is mild all year, so almost any certified heat pump can heat the house; efficiency and quiet running decide the choice. At California prices an efficient heat pump delivers heat for about $39.40 per million Btu, against $22.32 for a high-efficiency gas furnace.

Utility bills and a phone showing a monthly energy-use chart on a kitchen table
Climate Zone 3C 2,475 heating and 200 cooling degree days a year
Heat pump $39.40 per million Btu seasonal COP 2.5 for this climate
Gas furnace (95%) $22.32 per million Btu gas costs less to run here; a heat pump would need a seasonal COP of 4.4 to match it
Heat pump programs 2 of 5 open Amounts and equipment rules

What this means for your house: Mild winters and modest summers: comfort fixes and efficient equipment matter more than big heating savings.

Climate and sizing

The climate is mild all year, so almost any certified heat pump can heat the house; efficiency and quiet running decide the choice. This is a marine climate: mild all year, so a small system sized to the real load runs quietly and efficiently. Whatever the climate, the system should be sized from a room-by-room load calculation (ACCA Manual J), not from the size of the old air conditioner or furnace: an oversized heat pump short-cycles, dehumidifies poorly and costs more.

IECC 2021 climate zone
3C
Heating degree days (65°F)
2,475
Cooling degree days (65°F)
200
Weather station
SAN FRANCISCO INTL AP, CA US
Cooling a typical 1,600 sq ft house
about 600 kWh a year
Seasonal COP for planning
2.5 for a standard heat pump
Typical home
built around 1946; 38% owner-occupied

Degree days: NOAA 1991–2020 climate normals. Climate zone: IECC 2021 (PNNL county list). Housing: Census American Community Survey. Seasonal COP: Seasonal COP is the heat delivered over a whole heating season, including electric backup heat and defrost, for a heat pump sized for the house. We pick the planning value by how cold the winter is (heating degree days) and set it slightly below modelled results (Dunsky/CCI 2024), because measured field performance tends to come in lower. For your own house, the HSPF2 rating of the system you choose and your installer's Manual J load calculation are the better guide.

Mild coastal Coastal California

Choosing equipment for San Francisco’s climate

Small loads and high power prices, plus heat waves in homes built without AC.

Your heating and cooling loads are small, but California electricity costs far more than the national average, so waste still adds up. Many homes have no AC, and many older ones heat with wall or floor furnaces, so heat-wave planning and safe venting matter most. A good audit seals and insulates the attic, tests fuel-burning equipment and sizes any cooling for heat waves without oversizing.

What to look for in this climate

  • Southwest rules apply statewide: a new split AC needs at least 14.3 SEER2 plus an EER2 minimum, based on installation date.
  • A standard heat pump is enough here. The coastal airports average almost no nights at or below freezing, so you don't need a cold-climate heat pump.
  • Size cooling for heat waves with a Manual J load calculation, without oversizing.

Do these alongside the new system

  • Heat pump to replace a wall furnace. A ducted or ductless heat pump adds cooling for heat waves and heats efficiently. Cold-climate models aren't needed: the coastal airports almost never freeze.
  • Heat pump water heater. It moves heat instead of making it, and it needs a space that stays between 40°F and 90°F.

Mistakes to avoid

  • Desert-style oversized cooling at the coast. Your loads are small. An oversized system costs more and short-cycles, and you don't need cold-climate heating either.
  • Tightening a house with wall furnaces, untested. Open-flue wall furnaces risk backdrafting in a tighter house. Test before and after air sealing.

What else homes in San Francisco need →

Sources for this climate guide · checked October 26, 2026

What heat costs to run in San Francisco

Heating and cooling both count here: winters are real, so the price of each unit of heat matters, but so does summer efficiency. Cost per million Btu of heat delivered into the house, at California's average residential prices from the EIA (electricity for July 2026, gas as an annual average). Here a heat pump needs a seasonal COP above 4.4 to beat a 95% gas furnace, so at these prices gas stays cheaper to run; the case for a heat pump rests on replacing the air conditioner, cutting emissions or a time-of-use rate.

Delivered heat cost by fuel in San Francisco
Heating system Cost per million Btu of heat vs cheapest Based on
Natural gas furnace (95%) $22.32 cheapest $2.12 per therm (2025 average)
Standard heat pump $39.40 +77% seasonal COP 2.5
Electric furnace or baseboards $98.50 +341% 33.6¢ per kWh (July 2026)

Against electric resistance heat (baseboards or an electric furnace), even a standard heat pump cuts the heating bill by about 60%.

Prices: EIA electricity · EIA natural gas. Your own rate plan may differ, especially on a time-of-use or heat pump rate.

What cooling costs in San Francisco

Summer matters too. Air conditioning for a typical 1,600 sq ft single-family house with central air, at California's average residential electricity price (33.6¢ per kWh, EIA, July 2026). In this marine climate, cooling is a small and occasional load, so a system sized to the real load matters more than a top efficiency rating.

Yearly cooling electricity and cost by system efficiency in San Francisco
System Rated efficiency Electricity a year Cost a year
Typical system in homes like this today about 13.1 SEER 600 kWh $204
New heat pump at the federal minimum 14.3 SEER2 500 kWh $179
High-efficiency system (often two-stage) 18.0 SEER2 400 kWh $142
Top-tier variable-speed system 22.0 SEER2 300 kWh $116

SEER2 is the season-long cooling efficiency on the yellow EnergyGuide label. A real house can use about half to 1.6 times the typical figure. Estimate from EIA RECS 2020 survey cell CA 3C (IECC 2012 code in RECS), rescaled to San Francisco's 1991–2020 normal cooling degree days. Sources: EIA: 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (public microdata) · NOAA: 1991–2020 U.S. climate normals · EIA: average residential electricity price by state.

Heat pump rebates in San Francisco

Every heat pump program we found for the San Francisco area, with the equipment rule that decides which models qualify. Checked against each program's own page on October 19, 2026. Most utility programs need an AHRI-matched system; check the exact pairing in the AHRI directory before you sign.

CleanPowerSF Electrify Your Home bill credits (clean heating)

Open

CleanPowerSF (San Francisco Public Utilities Commission)

Heat pump amountsHeat pump space heating: '$50 per month for 24 months ($1,200 total)'. CARE or FERA customers 'may qualify for an extra 12 months of bill credits (a total of $600)' when upgrading water or space heating.

Equipment ruleInstallation must be 'on or after April 14, 2026'. The customer must enroll in 'an electrification rate such as EV2-A or E-ELEC' and comply with Department of Building Inspection permit requirements. The page states no ENERGY STAR or efficiency rule.

Other conditionsNo contractor requirement ('we recommend hiring a licensed, insured contractor'). DIY is not addressed.

cleanpowersf.org ↗ · checked October 19, 2026

WestLight Energy heat pump HVAC rebate (San Mateo County)

Open

WestLight Energy (formerly Peninsula Clean Energy)

Heat pump amountsThe page offers 'exclusive rebates on heat pump water heaters, heat pump HVAC systems, and used EVs' but shows no amount.

Equipment ruleNot stated on the page.

Other conditionsNot stated on the rebates page. Per October 12, the 0% loan requires a loan-approved contractor.

westlightenergy.org ↗ · checked October 19, 2026

Bay Area Air District Clean HEET (wood stove to heat pump)

Closed now

Bay Area Air District (as reported by BayREN)

Heat pump amounts'Individual awards range from $3,000 - $10,500 for one stove/insert and $6,000 - $13,500 for two stoves/inserts.'

Equipment ruleReplace an existing, operational freestanding wood stove or wood-burning fireplace insert with an electric heat pump. No other specification is stated.

Other conditionsNot stated.

Statusclosed: 'The Clean HEET Program application period closed on July 14, 2026.'

bayren.org ↗ · checked October 19, 2026

TECH Clean California single-family heat pump HVAC incentives

Closed now

TECH Clean California (Energy Solutions, for California utilities under CPUC oversight)

Heat pump amountsNo amounts listed; the incentives are fully reserved.

Equipment ruleNot stated on the page.

Other conditionsParticipating (TECH-enrolled) contractors only.

StatusFully reserved: 'As of November 14, 2025, TECH Clean California single-family heat pump water heater and heat pump HVAC incentives are reserved statewide.' No reopening date.

techcleanca.com ↗ · checked October 19, 2026

California HEEHRA Phase I (IRA Home Electrification and Appliance Rebates)

Closed now

California Energy Commission, delivered through TECH Clean California

Heat pump amountsSingle-family heat pump HVAC: up to $8,000 (household income under 80% AMI) or up to $4,000 (80-150% AMI). Low-income multifamily: $7,500 for two-speed and $8,000 for variable-speed heat pumps. Moderate-income multifamily: up to 50% of eligible costs, max $14,000 per unit.

Equipment rule'Two-speed or variable-speed ENERGY STAR certified heat pump for space heating and cooling.' Single-family installs must replace an existing non-heat-pump source of space heating. From Jan. 1, 2026, systems 'must only contain refrigerants with a global warming potential (GWP) of 700 or lower'.

Other conditionsA TECH Clean California-certified, HEEHRA-trained contractor is required, and the reservation must be approved before installation. Since July 15, 2025, a project cannot receive both a TECH incentive and a HEEHRA rebate.

StatusClosed to new reservations. Single-family has been fully reserved statewide since Feb. 24, 2026, with unapproved requests waitlisted. Multifamily has been fully reserved since Sept. 1, 2026.

techcleanca.com ↗ · checked October 19, 2026

Federal

Federal tax credit (25C)

Ended

No 25C credit for a heat pump placed in service after December 31, 2025. Heat pumps installed in 2025 are claimed on 2025 returns.

irs.gov ↗

High-Efficiency Electric Home Rebates

The federal rebate (formerly HEAR) pays up to $8,000 toward an ENERGY STAR certified heat pump for income-qualified households, through the state. Since May 29, 2026 it covers only upgrades from existing electric equipment, and the installer must be on the state's contractor list. California's status is in the program list above.

Program rules ↗

Audit programs, other rebates and help for lower-income homes: our San Francisco guide.

Systems that suit San Francisco

Winters here don't call for cold-weather ratings, so these are the certified systems with the highest SEER2, on current refrigerants, from ENERGY STAR's US listings. Rebadged twins with identical ratings are folded into one row.

How to read the tables: SEER2 is cooling efficiency over a season and EER2 on the hottest afternoons; HSPF2 is heating efficiency over a season. Size is the rated output in BTU/h (12,000 BTU/h is one ton). The AHRI number identifies the exact certified pairing for rebates. Full definitions: how to read the numbers.

Central systems that cool most efficiently

Central systems that cool most efficiently for San Francisco
Brand Outdoor / indoor model Size SEER2 EER2 HSPF2 Refrigerant AHRI #
Carrier Infinity 23 VS Heat Pump 27VNA324A*030* CVAMA4421XMA*+UI Same ratings also listed as Bryant, Heil, Tempstar, Comfortmaker, KeepRite and other ICP brands, ACiQ, Kenmore 27,600 BTU/h 2-ton 23.0 14.0 9.5 R-454B 217624611
Bryant Evolution 23 VS Heat Pump 293VAN048**AA* FE5BNBD60L*+UI Same ratings also listed as Heil, Tempstar, Comfortmaker, KeepRite and other ICP brands, ACiQ, Kenmore 48,000 BTU/h 4-ton 23.0 12.5 9.5 R-454B 215931505
Carrier Infinity 23 VS Heat Pump 27VNA336A*030* CVAVA6124XMA*+UI Same ratings also listed as Bryant, Heil, Tempstar, Comfortmaker, KeepRite and other ICP brands, ACiQ, Kenmore 37,600 BTU/h 3-ton 22.5 12.5 8.5 R-454B 215936924
Heil, Tempstar, Comfortmaker, KeepRite and other ICP brands SmartSense 23 VS HP B5H3V36*K*AAA* EVM5X61M24A*+WALLCON Same ratings also listed as Kenmore 37,600 BTU/h 3-ton 22.5 12.5 8.5 R-454B 218411807
York LX SERIES YH960E2C11 CTM60C5CGS1+JMC17C2SN1+CC Same ratings also listed as Coleman and Luxaire, Kenmore 48,000 BTU/h 4-ton 22.0 12.0 9.0 R-454B 218026792
Mitsubishi Electric P series 5HCL9036A1000A* 5TEM9D04AC31SA* 40,000 BTU/h 3-ton 21.2 12.1 9.2 R-454B 217497618
Lennox DAVE LENNOX SIGNATURE SL22KLV SERIES SL22KLV-060-230A** CK40[C,U]T-60C-**+TDR 51,000 BTU/h 4.5-ton 21.1 11.7 9.0 R-454B 216776120
Lennox Elite EL21KLV SERIES EL21KLV-024-230A** CK40HT-24B-**+TDR Same ratings also listed as Armstrong Air, AirEase, Ducane and Concord 24,000 BTU/h 2-ton 21.0 13.5 8.2 R-454B 218745112

Mini-splits that cool most efficiently

Mini-splits that cool most efficiently for San Francisco
Brand Outdoor / indoor model Size SEER2 EER2 HSPF2 Refrigerant AHRI #
Carrier 45M Series 37MPRAQ06AA3 45MPHAQ06XA3 Same ratings also listed as Bryant, Midea, Payne and WeatherMaker 9,000 BTU/h 0.5-ton 35.1 17.5 15.6 R-454B 215413141
Mitsubishi Electric M-Series MUZ-FX06NLHZ*** MSZ-FX06NL*** 9,000 BTU/h 0.5-ton 35.0 21.5 13.0 R-454B 215611124
Midea MSE Series MO1SS-H06B-2A MSESU-H06B-2A Same ratings also listed as Comfort-Aire and Century, Blueridge, AI AIR CONDITIONING, KEEN Home, Mainline, Novair 9,000 BTU/h 0.5-ton 35.0 17.4 15.6 R-454B 215471385
Fujitsu AIRSTAGE H-Series AOUH09KTAP1 ASUH09KTAS 12,000 BTU/h 1-ton 33.5 19.1 14.0 R-32 216018255
Carrier 45M Series 37MPRAQ09AA3 45MPHAQ09XA3 Same ratings also listed as Bryant, Midea, Payne and WeatherMaker 12,000 BTU/h 1-ton 33.5 17.0 14.6 R-454B 215413142
Midea MSE Series MO1SS-H09B-2A MSESU-H09B-2A Same ratings also listed as Senville, Comfort-Aire and Century, Blueridge, AI AIR CONDITIONING, CanAir, KEEN Home, Mainline, Novair 12,000 BTU/h 1-ton 33.3 17.0 14.6 R-454B 215471386
Fujitsu AIRSTAGE H-Series AOUH09KZAH1 ASUH09KZAS 12,000 BTU/h 1-ton 33.1 18.8 13.3 R-32 214888800
Mitsubishi Electric M-Series MUZ-FX09NLHZ*** MSZ-FX09NL*** 12,000 BTU/h 1-ton 33.1 18.4 13.3 R-454B 215611125

Brands with the most efficient cooling

Brands by the best SEER2 among their certified systems. Each brand page has the warranty, product lines and best models.

Heat pump brands for San Francisco
Brand Best SEER2 Best EER2 All certified models Price tier
Midea 35.1 18.1 629 Mid-range
Bryant 35.1 18.0 219 Budget to premium
Carrier 35.1 18.0 201 Budget to premium
Payne and WeatherMaker 35.1 18.0 136 Budget
Mitsubishi Electric 35.0 21.5 369 Premium
Blueridge 35.0 18.0 202 Budget
Comfort-Aire and Century 35.0 18.0 151 Mid-range
Fujitsu 33.5 19.1 130 Budget to premium
Senville 33.3 18.0 45 Budget
Heil, Tempstar, Comfortmaker, KeepRite and other ICP brands 33.1 18.0 275 Budget to premium
Hisense 32.0 18.4 116 Mid-range
Gree 30.0 16.8 406 Mid-range

Compare every brand · All 43 brand pages and every certified name

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