Heat pumps by metro · Minnesota · Wisconsin · checked October 19, 2026

Heat pumps in Minneapolis–St. Paul

Winters here are long and cold, so the heat pump has to keep its output near 5°F. At Minnesota prices a cold-climate heat pump delivers heat for about $23.25 per million Btu, against $11.16 for a high-efficiency gas furnace.

A kitchen table with a house floor plan, a laser measure, a tape measure and a laptop showing the plan
Climate Zone 6A 7,399 heating and 830 cooling degree days a year
Cold-climate heat pump $23.25 per million Btu seasonal COP 2.2 for this climate
Gas furnace (95%) $11.16 per million Btu gas costs less to run here; a heat pump would need a seasonal COP of 4.6 to match it
Heat pump programs 2 of 4 open 2 without a posted status · Amounts and equipment rules

What this means for your house: Long, cold winters drive the bills here: air sealing, insulation and heating efficiency pay back fastest.

Climate and sizing

Winters here are long and cold, so the heat pump has to keep its output near 5°F. This is a humid climate: a variable-speed system that runs longer at low speed pulls more moisture out of the air than a single-stage one. Whatever the climate, the system should be sized from a room-by-room load calculation (ACCA Manual J), not from the size of the old air conditioner or furnace: an oversized heat pump short-cycles, dehumidifies poorly and costs more.

IECC 2021 climate zone
6A
Heating degree days (65°F)
7,399
Cooling degree days (65°F)
830
Weather station
MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL AP, MN US
Cooling a typical 1,600 sq ft house
about 1,400 kWh a year
Seasonal COP for planning
2.2 cold-climate · 1.9 standard
Typical home
built around 1951; 48% owner-occupied

Degree days: NOAA 1991–2020 climate normals. Climate zone: IECC 2021 (PNNL county list). Housing: Census American Community Survey. Seasonal COP: Seasonal COP is the heat delivered over a whole heating season, including electric backup heat and defrost, for a heat pump sized for the house. We pick the planning value by how cold the winter is (heating degree days) and set it slightly below modelled results (Dunsky/CCI 2024), because measured field performance tends to come in lower. For your own house, the HSPF2 rating of the system you choose and your installer's Manual J load calculation are the better guide.

Very cold Upper Midwest

Choosing equipment for Minneapolis–St. Paul’s climate

Long, bitter winters make heating your biggest bill, and summers still need AC.

Heating is your biggest bill here: Minneapolis averages 22 nights a year at or below 0°F. Warm air leaking into the attic wastes heat and causes ice dams, and when homes get too cold, a heating breakdown is the usual reason. A good audit seals the attic first, checks that fuel-burning appliances vent safely, and tests for radon.

What to look for in this climate

  • You need a cold-climate heat pump for primary heat here. Check its certified performance at 5°F, because HSPF2 ratings are only tested down to 17°F.
  • Size equipment with a Manual J load calculation, and keep backup heat for the coldest hours: your furnace in a dual-fuel setup, or electric strips.
  • Federal minimums: 13.4 SEER2 for a split AC, and 14.3 SEER2 with 7.5 HSPF2 for a split heat pump. ENERGY STAR's cold-climate tier for ducted models is 8.1 HSPF2.
  • A heat pump water heater needs a space that stays between 40°F and 90°F all year, with about 1,000 cubic feet of air. It cools the room it sits in.

Do these alongside the new system

  • Cold-climate heat pump, whole-home or dual-fuel. Choose a model that meets ENERGY STAR's cold-climate criteria, including a COP of 1.75 or better at 5°F, or one on NEEP's list.
  • Sealed-combustion or electric replacements. When an open-flue furnace or water heater is due for replacement, a sealed-combustion or electric unit removes the spillage risk a tighter house creates.

Mistakes to avoid

  • Choosing a heat pump by HSPF2 alone. HSPF2 doesn't show how a unit performs at 5°F. Check cold-climate ratings and size it with Manual J.

What else homes in Minneapolis–St. Paul need →

Sources for this climate guide · checked October 26, 2026

What heat costs to run in Minneapolis–St. Paul

In a climate this cold, heating is usually the biggest energy cost in an older house, so the price of each unit of heat matters. Cost per million Btu of heat delivered into the house, at Minnesota's average residential prices from the EIA (electricity for July 2026, gas as an annual average). Here a heat pump needs a seasonal COP above 4.6 to beat a 95% gas furnace, so at these prices gas stays cheaper to run; the case for a heat pump rests on replacing the air conditioner, cutting emissions or a time-of-use rate.

Delivered heat cost by fuel in Minneapolis–St. Paul
Heating system Cost per million Btu of heat vs cheapest Based on
Natural gas furnace (95%) $11.16 cheapest $1.06 per therm (2025 average)
Propane furnace (93%) $22.35 +100% $1.90 per gallon before tax (week of October 5, 2026)
Cold-climate heat pump $23.25 +108% seasonal COP 2.2 for this climate
Standard heat pump $26.92 +141% seasonal COP 1.9
Oil furnace (85%) $48.73 +337% $5.74 per gallon before tax (week of October 5, 2026)
Electric furnace or baseboards $51.14 +358% 17.4¢ per kWh (July 2026)

Against electric resistance heat (baseboards or an electric furnace), even a standard heat pump cuts the heating bill by about 47%.

Prices: EIA electricity · EIA natural gas. Your own rate plan may differ, especially on a time-of-use or heat pump rate.

What cooling costs in Minneapolis–St. Paul

Summer matters too. Air conditioning for a typical 1,600 sq ft single-family house with central air, at Minnesota's average residential electricity price (17.4¢ per kWh, EIA, July 2026). In this humid climate, part of the air conditioner's job is pulling moisture out of the air. A right-sized variable-speed system runs longer at low speed and removes more of it; an oversized one cools quickly, shuts off and leaves the house clammy.

Yearly cooling electricity and cost by system efficiency in Minneapolis–St. Paul
System Rated efficiency Electricity a year Cost a year
Typical system in homes like this today about 12.5 SEER 1,400 kWh $239
New heat pump at the federal minimum 14.3 SEER2 1,100 kWh $199
High-efficiency system (often two-stage) 18.0 SEER2 900 kWh $158
Top-tier variable-speed system 22.0 SEER2 700 kWh $129

SEER2 is the season-long cooling efficiency on the yellow EnergyGuide label. A real house can use about 30% less to 35% more than the typical figure. Estimate from EIA RECS 2020 survey cell MN 6A (IECC 2012 code in RECS), rescaled to Minneapolis–St. Paul's 1991–2020 normal cooling degree days. Sources: EIA: 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (public microdata) · NOAA: 1991–2020 U.S. climate normals · EIA: average residential electricity price by state.

Heat pump rebates in Minneapolis–St. Paul

Every heat pump program we found for the Minneapolis–St. Paul area, with the equipment rule that decides which models qualify. Checked against each program's own page on October 19, 2026. Most utility programs need an AHRI-matched system; check the exact pairing in the AHRI directory before you sign.

Xcel Energy Minnesota heat pump rebates

Unconfirmed

Xcel Energy

Heat pump amountsConfirmed on October 19 on CEE's Minneapolis Bonus Rebate page: ducted ASHP $500 and ducted cold-climate ASHP $900 for Xcel electric-only customers; mini-split $1,600; cold-climate mini-split $2,000. Combination or gas-only customers $1,600 for a ducted ASHP and $2,000 for a ducted ccASHP; ground source $500 per heating ton; panel upgrade up to $1,500.

Equipment ruleSource: Xcel's Minnesota 2024-2026 Rebate Summary, the only Xcel sheet readable on October 19. Ducted ASHP 15.2 SEER2 / 9.6 EER2 / 7.8 HSPF2 with Quality Installation. Ducted ccASHP 15.2 SEER2 / 10.0 EER2 / 8.1 HSPF2 with Quality Installation. Mini-split 15.2 SEER2 / 9.3 EER2 / 8.5 HSPF2. Cold-climate mini-split 16.0 SEER2 / 9.0 EER2 / 9.5 HSPF2. Cold-climate units need 'COP at 5 oF ≥ 1.75 AND on ashp.neep.org', plus 5°F heating capacity of at least 70% of rated 47°F capacity. GSHP 16 EER2 and 3.3 COP with Quality…

Other conditionsNot re-verified on October 19. Our October 12 check: ducted systems need a Trade Partner Network contractor, and mini-splits may be self-installed with AHRI and NEEP documentation.

StatusOpen per October 12 (installs by Dec. 31, 2026; apply by Sept. 30, 2027). Not re-checked: Xcel's current summary isn't readable online, and its web pages didn't load.

mn.my.xcelenergy.com ↗ · checked October 19, 2026

CenterPoint Energy (Minnesota) ducted air-source heat pump rebate (hybrid with gas furnace)

Unconfirmed

CenterPoint Energy

Heat pump amountsOur October 12 check: $1,100 in an existing home and $400 in new construction. CEE's current Minneapolis page lists a 'Gas' utility rebate of $1,100 for ducted heat pumps, which is consistent.

Equipment ruleOur October 12 check: HSPF2 7.8 or higher, paired with a gas furnace of 92% AFUE or more, and programmed to switch over at 40°F or lower.

StatusOpen per October 12, which gives an application deadline of Dec. 31 of the installation year.

centerpointenergy.com ↗ · checked October 19, 2026

Minneapolis Bonus Rebate (Green Cost Share)

Open · limits apply

City of Minneapolis, administered by Center for Energy and Environment (CEE)

Heat pump amountsBonus on top of the utility rebate (Green Zone / elsewhere): cold-climate ASHP non-ducted (mini-split) up to $5,000 / up to $1,000; cold-climate ASHP ducted or mixed-ducted up to $5,000 / $1,000; ASHP non-ducted up to $4,000 / $1,000; ASHP ducted up to $4,000 / $1,000. Bonus totals may not exceed $20,000 in Green Zones or $6,000 elsewhere, and the bonus plus utility rebate cannot exceed project cost.

Equipment ruleProjects 'must be eligible for a utility rebate from CenterPoint Energy or Xcel Energy'. Cold-climate mini-split: '16 SEER2 (9.0 EER2), HSPF2 9.5, COP of at least 1.75 at 5° and capacity ratio ≥ 70% at 5°F/47°F'.

Other conditions'Work must be done by a properly licensed or registered contractor with the MN Department of Labor.' DIY is not addressed.

Statusopen, first-come, first-served, for projects completed after Dec. 15, 2025; apply after the work is complete

mncee.org ↗ · checked October 19, 2026

Focus on Energy IRA Home Electrification and Appliance Rebates (HEAR), Wisconsin

Open

Public Service Commission of Wisconsin, delivered by Focus on Energy

Heat pump amountsENERGY STAR electric heat pump for space heating and cooling: up to $8,000. The household cap is $14,000. Households under 80% AMI get 100% of project cost, and those at 80-150% AMI get 50%; households above 150% AMI are not eligible.

Equipment ruleENERGY STAR certified; no cold-climate, NEEP or efficiency rule is stated. 'Program changes for qualifying equipment go into effect September 1, 2026', and since then retail post-purchase or instant-discount requests are not accepted for equipment replacing fossil fuel appliances.

Other conditionsSpace-heating heat pumps: Registered Contractor only ('Certain equipment MUST be purchased and installed by an IRA Registered Contractor'). Self-install is allowed only for heat pump water heaters and kitchen or laundry items.

focusonenergy.com ↗ · checked October 19, 2026

Federal

Federal tax credit (25C)

Ended

No 25C credit for a heat pump placed in service after December 31, 2025. Heat pumps installed in 2025 are claimed on 2025 returns.

irs.gov ↗

High-Efficiency Electric Home Rebates

The federal rebate (formerly HEAR) pays up to $8,000 toward an ENERGY STAR certified heat pump for income-qualified households, through the state. Since May 29, 2026 it covers only upgrades from existing electric equipment, and the installer must be on the state's contractor list. Each state runs its own program; the status is in the list above.

Program rules ↗

Audit programs, other rebates and help for lower-income homes: our Minneapolis–St. Paul guide.

Systems that suit Minneapolis–St. Paul

The certified systems that heat most efficiently at 5°F, and those that cool most efficiently, on current refrigerants, from ENERGY STAR's US listings. Rebadged twins with identical ratings are folded into one row.

How to read the tables: SEER2 is cooling efficiency over a season and EER2 on the hottest afternoons; HSPF2 is heating efficiency over a season, and COP at 5°F shows how efficiently the system still heats in deep cold. Size is the rated output in BTU/h (12,000 BTU/h is one ton). The AHRI number identifies the exact certified pairing for rebates. Full definitions: how to read the numbers.

Central systems that heat best in the cold (2 tons and up)

Central systems that heat best in the cold (2 tons and up) for Minneapolis–St. Paul
Brand Outdoor / indoor model Size Heat at 5°F COP at 5°F HSPF2 SEER2 Refrigerant AHRI #
Samsung Hylex AC060FCUPCG FEMUU1A60S001R 56,000 BTU/h 4.5-ton 43,000 BTU/h 77% of rated 2.58 9.0 17.0 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 217734250
Samsung Hylex AC048FCUPCG FEMTT7A60S001R 48,000 BTU/h 4-ton 40,500 BTU/h 84% of rated 2.52 8.5 16.5 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 217734248
Hisense Hi-PRO HD AUWR-60U3TH5 AUH-48UX3TEH3 Same ratings also listed as Multi MFG 48,000 BTU/h 4-ton 37,000 BTU/h 77% of rated 2.52 9.0 19.0 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 215270433
Lennox Elite EL21KLV SERIES EL21KLV-036-230A** CK40HT-30B-**+TDR 30,800 BTU/h 3-ton 22,600 BTU/h 73% of rated 2.48 9.0 18.5 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 217443282
Midea MVB Series MOE30-36HFN10-M3X MVBDM-36HWFN10-WC3 36,000 BTU/h 3-ton 36,000 BTU/h 100% of rated 2.46 10.0 18.0 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 216967947
Hisense Hi-PRO HD AUWR-6024P AUH-6024 Same ratings also listed as Multi MFG 57,000 BTU/h 5-ton 42,000 BTU/h 74% of rated 2.46 9.0 19.0 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 214855379
Armstrong Air, AirEase, Ducane and Concord A7CP21V Series A7CP21V36P-**A 7EH30BX-**+TDR Same ratings also listed as AC PRO 30,600 BTU/h 3-ton 22,400 BTU/h 73% of rated 2.46 9.0 19.0 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 217446281
GE Appliances and Haier NS21H Series NS21H36MA5-**A NCHC30BT5*-**+TDR 30,600 BTU/h 3-ton 22,400 BTU/h 73% of rated 2.46 9.0 17.0 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 217642661

Mini-splits that heat best in the cold

Mini-splits that heat best in the cold for Minneapolis–St. Paul
Brand Outdoor / indoor model Size Heat at 5°F COP at 5°F HSPF2 SEER2 Refrigerant AHRI #
Midea M3O Series M3OX430-27HFN8-M1 Same ratings also listed as Innovair, Stelpro, Dettson and Ouellet 27,000 BTU/h 2.5-ton 21,400 BTU/h 79% of rated 2.80 10.0 22.5 R-32 ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 218461516
Fujitsu AIRSTAGE H-Series AOUH12KTAP1 ASUH12KTAS 15,300 BTU/h 1-ton 16,200 BTU/h 106% of rated 2.62 13.7 31.5 R-32 ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 216018256
Hitachi airCore700 PAS-18BUFASDQ1-LAC PCI-B18UFA1DQ 18,000 BTU/h 1.5-ton 15,000 BTU/h 83% of rated 2.60 11.0 27.0 R-32 ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 217450776
York airCore700 YPAS18BUFASDQ1 YPCIB18UFA1DQ Same ratings also listed as Hitachi 20,000 BTU/h 1.5-ton 16,200 BTU/h 81% of rated 2.60 11.0 25.0 R-32 ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 218694242
York Y600 YRACGJ09WHAA YRAKGJ09PHAA Same ratings also listed as Hitachi 9,000 BTU/h 1-ton 8,400 BTU/h 93% of rated 2.57 11.4 23.0 R-32 ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 218037188
Carrier 45M Series 37MARAQ24AA3 45MAHAQ24XA3 Same ratings also listed as Bryant, Midea, Heil, Tempstar, Comfortmaker, KeepRite and other ICP brands, Payne and WeatherMaker, Kenmore, LPS Legacy, Smart Comfort 25,000 BTU/h 2-ton 19,600 BTU/h 78% of rated 2.54 11.7 23.1 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 215323752
Bosch BMS Series BMS500-AAS024-1CSXRD BMS500-AAU024-1AHWXD Same ratings also listed as Midea, Moovair, Innovair, Stelpro, Dettson and Ouellet, Cooper & Hunter, ACiQ, Blueridge, AC PRO, CanAir 25,000 BTU/h 2-ton 19,600 BTU/h 78% of rated 2.54 11.7 23.0 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 215223306
Fujitsu AIRSTAGE H-Series AOUH15KTAP1 ASUH15KTAS 17,400 BTU/h 1-ton 18,400 BTU/h 106% of rated 2.52 13.0 28.7 R-32 ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 216018257

Central systems that cool most efficiently

Central systems that cool most efficiently for Minneapolis–St. Paul
Brand Outdoor / indoor model Size SEER2 EER2 HSPF2 COP at 5°F Refrigerant AHRI #
Carrier Infinity 23 VS Heat Pump 27VNA324A*030* CVAMA4421XMA*+UI Same ratings also listed as Bryant, Heil, Tempstar, Comfortmaker, KeepRite and other ICP brands, ACiQ, Kenmore 27,600 BTU/h 2-ton 23.0 14.0 9.5 2.06 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 217624611
Bryant Evolution 23 VS Heat Pump 293VAN048**AA* FE5BNBD60L*+UI Same ratings also listed as Heil, Tempstar, Comfortmaker, KeepRite and other ICP brands, ACiQ, Kenmore 48,000 BTU/h 4-ton 23.0 12.5 9.5 1.98 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 215931505
Carrier Infinity 23 VS Heat Pump 27VNA336A*030* CVAVA6124XMA*+UI Same ratings also listed as Bryant, Heil, Tempstar, Comfortmaker, KeepRite and other ICP brands, ACiQ, Kenmore 37,600 BTU/h 3-ton 22.5 12.5 8.5 2.06 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 215936924
Heil, Tempstar, Comfortmaker, KeepRite and other ICP brands SmartSense 23 VS HP B5H3V36*K*AAA* EVM5X61M24A*+WALLCON Same ratings also listed as Kenmore 37,600 BTU/h 3-ton 22.5 12.5 8.5 2.04 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 218411807
York LX SERIES YH960E2C11 CTM60C5CGS1+JMC17C2SN1+CC Same ratings also listed as Coleman and Luxaire, Kenmore 48,000 BTU/h 4-ton 22.0 12.0 9.0 2.00 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 218026792
Mitsubishi Electric P series 5HCL9036A1000A* 5TEM9D04AC31SA* 40,000 BTU/h 3-ton 21.2 12.1 9.2 2.10 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 217497618
Lennox DAVE LENNOX SIGNATURE SL22KLV SERIES SL22KLV-060-230A** CK40[C,U]T-60C-**+TDR 51,000 BTU/h 4.5-ton 21.1 11.7 9.0 1.96 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 216776120
Lennox Elite EL21KLV SERIES EL21KLV-024-230A** CK40HT-24B-**+TDR Same ratings also listed as Armstrong Air, AirEase, Ducane and Concord 24,000 BTU/h 2-ton 21.0 13.5 8.2 1.90 R-454B ENERGY STAR Cold Climate 218745112

Brands with the most cold-climate models

Outdoor models that meet ENERGY STAR Cold Climate, by brand. Each brand page has the warranty, product lines and best models.

Heat pump brands for Minneapolis–St. Paul
Brand ENERGY STAR Cold Climate Best COP at 5°F All certified models Price tier
Midea 523 2.89 629 Mid-range
Gree 368 2.40 406 Mid-range
Mitsubishi Electric 241 3.28 369 Premium
Innovair, Stelpro, Dettson and Ouellet 209 2.80 220 Mid-range
Innova (formerly Ephoca) 191 2.30 191 Premium
TCL 166 2.25 176 Not rated
Blueridge 161 2.54 202 Budget
Heil, Tempstar, Comfortmaker, KeepRite and other ICP brands 146 2.89 275 Budget to premium
Moovair 136 2.89 152 Mid-range
Bryant 123 2.89 219 Budget to premium
Carrier 123 2.89 201 Budget to premium
Comfort-Aire and Century 123 2.44 151 Mid-range

Compare every brand · All 43 brand pages and every certified name

Get heat pump quotes in Minneapolis–St. Paul

Tell us about your home and what you want to heat or cool. A person reads every request and replies with the contractors and rebate programs that serve your ZIP code.

We use these details only to answer this request. Privacy

Metros with a similar climate

Chicago IL · INBoston MA · NHDetroit MIDenver CO Audits and other rebates in Minneapolis–St. Paul →